There’s a good deal of money to be won this week on DraftKings including a top prize of $30k from the primary tournament. I’ll be going thicker than normal this week chasing the significant GPP prizes, and I will play less money games than normal. This is actually the first time we have observed a $30k top prize so I think it’s worth chasing if you’ve got the bankroll to get it.
We did lose the co-main event with Max Holloway pulling from this struggle against Brian Ortega, so we’re down to 11 battles and we ought to see a lot of ties with this card together with the more popular lineups. If you are pursuing that $30K then you will want to try and be a little different with your lineup so you can distinguish yourself from the remainder of the area. That said, let us get to a few plays I enjoy in addition to my fade of the week.
Cash Game play of the week — Paul Felder ($7,400)
The DK pricing on this fight is far off from the betting line. On DK, Felder is 1,400 less than his opponent, Mike Perry. On the betting line, Felder is the -150 favorite. That is just too much line worth to pass on in cash games and that makes Felder the”free square” this week. Even if he loses this battle, he should be so highly owned it won’t even damage your lineup in cash games. In GPP’s, Felder will be among the greatest owned fighters on the card and when he loses there then it could kill your lineup, so maybe consider preventing the chalk there in the event that you can. However, with that crazy line value we’re getting here, Paul Felder is the easy choice for the cash game play of this week.
GPP play of the week — Mike Perry ($8,800)
Ok, I know this sounds a bit weird since I literally just chose Paul Felder as my cash play of the week, but hear me out. In cash games, we don’t care about possession. In case Felder is 90% owned in money games, then it will not damage your lineup because only 10% of lineups didn’t possess him and you only need to be top ~50% of the area to cash in money games. In GPPs, I’m guessing Felder will probably be over 50% possessed. If he loses, that is half of the field that’s dead without a chance at winning 1st place.
Mike Perry on the other hand will probably be less than 20% owned, and maybe closer to 10% just due to the mispriced line. If Felder kills and loses off 50 percent of lineups, then you also get a win using the low owned man to set you in a much better location of a Royal 1st place win and possibly hitting $30k. Perry has the power to KO anybody and Paul Felder is carrying this fight on short notice in a weight class above his division. Can it shock you much if Perry could KO him? In GPPs, we are looking for that boom or bust drama and that is Mike Perry this week making him my GPP play of the week.
Underdog drama of this week — Anthony Pettis ($7,600)
Anthony Pettis would have been a -500 favored over Michael Chiesa if this struggle took place 5 years before, but today we get a evaporating Pettis as a underdog and $1,000 less costly than Chiesa on DraftKings. I think Pettis can continue to keep this fight standing for many the fight and that will give him a huge advantage. He is also dangerous on the ground himself and if he is taken I believe he will have the ability to get back up if he is not able to acquire a entry of his very own. If Pettis can acquire a determination then I presume he will pay off his DK cost and is going to be a fantastic underdog to use so you can conserve salary in your lineups. I may even find this fight ending from Pettis falling Chiesa with a human body kick and if that happens he will probably be on the winning lineup if he could make it happen in around 1.
Fade of the week — Rafael Assuncao ($9,100)
At $9.1k, I have zero interest in Assuncao this weekend. I do think he wins the struggle, but I do not find him paying off that high price tag. He does not fight at a hefty rate and he hasn’t gotten a takedown in his last 4 wins and the floor is where he’ll have his biggest edge in this matchup. In those previous 4 wins, Assuncao has not scored over 78 DK points and in his wages this week I want at least 91 points out of him to pay that much. I’d rather pay up for the guys higher priced than Assuncao, or even go down to Vannata or even Miocic. I will have at least 20 lineups this weekend and Assuncao will be in 0 of these, which makes him my fade of this week.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, then you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
http://mmaoddsbreaker.com/mmaob-premium/upcoming-picks

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