With the Australian Open shortly approaching, Dan Weston returns to analyse the top 20 players in the rankings and gives his thoughts on who’s over and under-rated…
Trying to use gamers to be found by metrics As has been the situation for the last few decades, the WTA Tour has been exceptionally open and hard to forecast, with numerous players all capable of beating each other on any particular day.
Nevertheless, it does not signify that hard to predict equates to becoming impossible to predict and I thought I’d examine some useful metrics with which to look at players, to attempt to establish those players at the WTA top 20 who are beneath and over-rated and whose results have flattered themor conversely, whose outcomes are worse than their real ability.
An example of how to apply the information An example application in the market is as follows. Let’s say that we can identify a participant who has won 70 percent of the matches over a short sample – state six months – but just deserved to win 50% of them according to data. Maybe they radically over-performed on crucial points and won much more tiebreaks compared to expectation. In this scenario we might have the capacity for some ongoing opposition of the player in the relative short-term, as my detailed previous investigation has shown it is very tough to maintain such a’clutch’ ability during a long time period.
Using service/return points won to evaluate player abilities
To start with, however, I want to check out participant ability levels. 1 way we could ascertain who’s done the best, with as little prejudice as possible, is to evaluate return and service points won percentages. Adding them together gives us a concrete assessment of each player’s skills, with the following mounts adequate guidelines to a player general ability:-
110+: Elite amount – illustrations are Novak Djokovic, Rafa Nadal on clay, Serena Williams at summit.
105-110: Strong upper top 10 level.
102-105: Perhaps not top level, but strong top 20 player.
100-102: If be ranked in the 20-40 bracket.
Here 100: Unlikely to be ranked inside the top 40.
No current WTA player fits into the 110+ class, with Simona Halep (108.5percent ) having the highest 12-month all-surface figure. Serena Williams (109.2percent ) in the last six months, was not far from this level, and if she can continue in this vein, perhaps her favourite status for the Australian Open is justified.

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